S.O.S. Now - Stop Oil Speculation Now - News Releases and Updates

News Releases and Updates

7/21/2011 - Dating the Timeline of Financial Bubbles During the Subprime Crisis

Study by The present paper uses econometric methodology to test if and when bubbles emerged and collapsed in the real estate market, the commodity market, and the bond market over the period surrounding the subprime crisis. Peter C. B. Phillips and Jun Yu

6/5/2011 - Price Formation in Financialized Commodity Markets – The Role of Information

A number of studies find evidence of commodity price bubbles. Analyses show that position-taking by index investors, that passively replicate the price movements of an index based on a basket of commodities, has an impact on price developments, particularly of crude oil and maize. The fact that these effects are persistent – especially in the case of crude oil – points to the presence of herd behaviour.

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

3/28/2011 - Position Limits for Derivatives

Letter by Dennis M. Kelleher of Better Markets, Inc. This letter demonstrates, with extensive anaylsis and empirical data: 1) speculation in commodity markets has dramatically increased and is excessive; 2) excessive speculation has caused increased volatility and increased prices in the future markets; 3) price increases in the future markets directly affect physical market prices and, thereby, have increased prices in the underlying commodities. Dennis M. Kelleher

3/24/2011 - Demand the CFTC implement rough new rules to end excessive oil speculation coalition letter

You helped win the battle of getting Congress to pass meaningful legislation to stop excessive oil speculation. Now we need your help to ensure that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency tasked with writing new rules to prevent excessive speculation, implements strong and effective regulations. Unfortunately, the CFTC is wavering, in part because the opposition has been working feverishly to protect the status quo. The five commissioners, who soon will vote on a rule to establish speculative position limits are under tremendous pressure to adopt weak, ineffective rules. This harms all of us. S.O.S. Now E-mail Update

3/1/2011 - Reviving the Competitive Storage Model: A Holistic Approach to Food Commodity Prices

Study by Yanliang Miao, Weifeng Wu, and Norbert Funke and the International Monetary Fund. Despite the centrality of food to both the people and the ruler, food price developments and availability remain poorly understood. The 2007-08 surges in global food and fuel prices are yet another example of their short-run volatility defying long-run tranquility. International Monetary Fund

3/1/2011 - Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities

Study by Ke Tang and Wei Xiong. This paper finds that concurrent with the rapid growing index investment in commodities markets since early 2000s, futures prices of non-energy commodities in the US became increasingly correlated with oil and this trend was significantly more pronounced for commodities in the two popular SP-GSCI and DJ-UBS commodity indices. Ke Tang and Wei Xiong

2/1/2011 - What Explains the Growth in Commodity Derivatives?

Study by Parantap Basu and William T. Gavin. This article documents the massive increase in trading in commodity derivatives over the past decade—growth that far outstrips the growth in commodity production and the need for derivatives to hedge risk by commercial producers and users of commodities. Parantap Basu and William T. Gavin

1/14/2011 - ATA Calls on CFTC to Strengthen Proposed Rule to Curb Excessive Speculation

The Air Transport Association of America (ATA), the industry trade organization representing the leading U.S. airlines, today urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to further reduce speculative position limits for energy to protect consumers and prevent the negative impact of unwarranted price spikes on the country’s economic recovery. ATA News Release

1/7/2011 - Index funds and the 2006-2008 run-up in agricultural commodity prices

While a single "bet" would not affect an actual price outcome, the total collection of bets or transactions in the futures markets do determine the day-to-day actual prices country elevators offer farmers for their grain as well contribute to the longer-term price discover process. Agricultural Policy Analysis Center and Daryll E. Ray & Harwood D. Schaffer

1/3/2011 - Prohibition of Market Manipulation

ATA comments on the rules proposed by the CFTC prohibiting the use or attempt to use any manipulative device in connection with any swap, futures contract or contract of sale of a commodity in interstate commerce. Air Transport Association Comments on CFTC Rules

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